KRISTEN WELKER:
This Sunday: Power lines. My exclusive interview with Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom of California on his fight against President Trump.
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
The rules of the game have changed. Now, we have to rewrite the new rules.
KRISTEN WELKER:
His defense of President Biden.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Did you legitimately believe that he was capable of serving as president until January of 2029?
KRISTEN WELKER:
And his own political future:
KRISTEN WELKER:
Why do you want to be president?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I don't. I'm not suggesting I am.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Plus: Decision 2025. Two days before voters go to the polls, Steve Kornacki reveals the results of our latest NBC News poll. And: Nuclear option. President Trump calls on Senate Republicans to get rid of the filibuster to end the government shutdown. Joining me for insight and analysis are: NBC News Capitol Hill Correspondent Melanie Zanona; Jonathan Martin of Politico; Adrienne Elrod, former senior adviser to the Harris campaign; and Republican Strategist Matt Gorman. Welcome to Sunday, it’s Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history, this is Meet the Press with Kristen Welker.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Good Sunday morning. As this government shutdown is poised to become the longest in U.S. history, stretching into its fifth week, federal employees have missed paychecks, critical food assistance is in jeopardy and lines are growing longer outside of food banks. The country is just two days away from Election Day with pivotal contests for governor in New Jersey and
Virginia. Plus, the race for New York City mayor, which could shape the future of the Democratic Party. And in California, Prop 50 is on the ballot – Governor Gavin Newsom's attempt to add safe Democratic seats to the congressional map in his state in response to red states doing the same at the behest of President Trump. My interview with Governor Newsom is coming up next. But first we start with Steve Kornacki and a brand new NBC News poll with some big results. Steve, break this down for us.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Yeah, Kristen, you know, as you say, 48 hours from now the first votes of major elections since last year's presidential, we're going to get to them. And this NBC News poll here is our first poll since the spring. And what we find is a mood that has soured on Trump and the Republican Party in that time. An approval rating of 43% now in our new poll for Donald Trump. But check out our previous poll, this was back in March, 47-51. He was starting out now well into his first year, this second term, down to a 43% job approval rating for President Trump. It's of course coming against the backdrop of the government shutdown. We asked the question: Who do you blame? 42% say Democrats in Congress; but 52% say it's either the president's fault or his party in Congress' fault.
KRISTEN WELKER:
This is striking, Steve, because here we are a month into this shutdown now and more Americans still pointing the finger at Republicans for this.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Certainly seems like it could be related to some of the numbers we're seeing here. Now check this out. Talk about Trump and his job performance on particular issues. Again, basically a year ago, he was elected. We asked folks: Do you think he's delivering here? He does get decent marks when it comes to border security and immigration; slight majority say he has lived up to what he promised to do there. But on none of these other topics do you see that number getting past the mid 40s. In fact, the low 30s down here on the economy questions.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, and part of why President Trump was elected on the economy, now it seems like it could be a headwind heading into Tuesday for Republicans.
STEVE KORNACKI:
And a huge shift obviously from his first term, too, when he actually did get good marks there. So you talk about heading into this Tuesday. We asked folks about their enthusiasm for the midterm elections. That'll be next year, 2026. But this was astounding. 66% – two thirds of all voters have a high level of interest. We will find that number typically on the eve of the actual midterm election. This is a year out. And this is what's encouraging for Democrats, troubling for Republicans, more enthusiasm for Democrats. That high level of interest, it's about three quarters of Democrats. It is a little bit lower there for Republicans. And that could feed into the second part of this equation. And that is we asked folks: Midterm election, which party would you want to control Congress? And the Democrats have now in our poll – this is significant – opened up an eight point advantage over Republicans. We checked this back in the spring. It was dead even. That eight point level is typically what you would find for a party that's poised for a big midterm election. That's the kind of lead Democrats had when they swept to power in Congress in Trump's first term. So we'll see if that holds now going forward. But that's a potentially big shift. Are there notes of caution here for Democrats? Yes, there are. This is the big one right here, the party's image. Democrats only 28% positive. Look at that, 53% negative. Republicans, it's only 37% and 46%. Democrats are 25 points underwater.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Wow.
STEVE KORNACKI:
And we should note, this is coming, as we say, during the shutdown. And our pollsters do note that sometimes during shutdowns, there can be a little volatility in these numbers. So I think it really heightens the stakes for Tuesday night in these elections, and especially in New Jersey, because Republicans think they can win that one. And if Republicans can win in New Jersey despite the numbers we're showing here, they're going to be feeling a little bit more encouraged heading into next year. But if the Democrats have a big night, these numbers have a lot to say about it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yes, Steve, all eyes are going to be on New Jersey, that closer than expected race. Steve Kornacki, fascinating findings. Thank you so much. Well this week, I sat down with California Governor Gavin Newsom for a wide-ranging conversation and I started by asking him about the state of the Democratic Party.
[BEGIN TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
Do you believe the Democratic brand is damaged right now?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Not right now. Four months ago, if you asked me that question, I would have been struggling to find positive signs of the party. I feel it's a completely different moment. I feel like we're on the precipice of a remarkable moment on November 4th, and not only where I'm confident we're going to win here with Proposition 50, but you're going to have two new remarkable governors in Virginia and New Jersey. You're going to have a dynamic young mayor, regardless of where you are in the political spectrum, that ran an extraordinary and exceptional campaign that galvanized people that, frankly, have been disenfranchised from politics. And we've got leaders now that have a united front and a message that's breaking through on health care, with Schumer and Jeffries, that give me real confidence that the Democratic Party is on its ascendancy. And November 4th will be a pivotal moment marking a new frame, new energy for our party.
KRISTEN WELKER:
We're going to talk about each of those issues that you just mentioned, but it sounds like you're predicting a big night for Democrats on November 4th.
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Yeah. I am, and for obvious reasons. I mean, this is a historically unpopular president. His policies are even more unpopular than the president himself. In every core category, he's underwater. And he's a guy that promised to make us wealthier and healthier. We're poorer and sicker, across the board. People are starting to realize that not only is their coffee more expensive, their beef is more expensive, but the cost of an automobile is more expensive, since he became president, the cost of utilities. All the things he promised to solve, day one, he hasn't solved. So his recklessness aside, his style aside, the substance, he hasn't delivered. And that's why, again, we're here, Prop 50, because he knows he's going to lose the midterms and he's trying to rig the election before one vote is cast.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Let's talk about the battle that you are waging here in California over Prop 50. For people who are watching, this would enable a redistricting effort here in the state to add additional Democratic seats. It comes after Republicans in Texas moved to redistrict to add up to five additional Republican seats there, at the direction of President Trump. Do you think that Prop 50 is going to pass on Tuesday, Governor?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I'm deeply confident, as long as we do everything that we set out to do over the next few days. We don't believe in running the 90-yard dash. We run at peak, the 110-yard dash. But the people have spoken and have spoken so far in historic ways. It's a special election. We've seen unprecedented number of ballots already sent in. We have an all mail-in ballot system here. And of course, we have a big turnout we expect on Election Day. But we're seeing overwhelming understanding and recognition of what's at stake. And remember, it's Prop 50 because this impacts everyone watching, in all 50 states. As I said a moment ago, Donald Trump is an historic president, historically unpopular. He's been very open and honest, including right outside the White House just last week, saying, "Incumbents are likely to lose the midterms." That's why he called Greg Abbott. That's why he said he's, quote-unquote, "entitled," think about that, "entitled to five seats." It's why he sent JD Vance to Indiana, shortly thereafter. It's why he moved in Missouri, he moved the folks in North Carolina. And now, we've got a special election in Indiana or, rather, a special session and likely movement in Florida. He is not screwing around. He's changing the rules. He's rigging the game because he knows he'll lose if all things are equal. He did not expect California to fight fire with fire.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Your predecessor, former Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger disagrees with this effort. He's been one of your most vocal critics.
[BEGIN TAPE]
FMR. GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER:
I think that Prop 50 is a big scam, and the reason why I’m saying that is because it says that we should fight Trump because he’s a threat to democracy. But in the meantime, they want to go and tear up the Constitution in California, get rid of the independent commission that draws the district lines and take the power away from the people and give it back to the politicians.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
What do you say to Governor Schwarzenegger who says, "The fight for Prop 50 is just a big scam"?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Well, former Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, who's in all the Republican ads, is wrong on a number of points that he just made. First of all, we're not throwing out the independent redistricting. We're affirming national independent redistricting. We're maintaining our current independent redistricting for statewide races, but in response to what happened in Texas, temporarily changing the maps for three cycles for the congressional races. It reverts then back to its original form, number one. Number two, the people are deciding. The maps are in the ballot. They're there in front of the voters in a way that have never been done in California or American history. So it's temporary. It's transparent. We have maintained the commission. And we're responding to the crisis, not of our making, but the crisis that Donald Trump advanced. Greg Abbott and other Republicans, that don't believe in fair and free elections. They don't. Why else would they be moving in this unprecedented way?
KRISTEN WELKER:
One of the biggest battles you're having with him is your fight over the deployment of U.S. troops to cities across this country –
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Yeah.
KRISTEN WELKER:
– including here in California. Do you trust the Justice Department to handle these cases?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Absolutely not.
KRISTEN WELKER:
You don't trust the Justice Department?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Are you kidding? His personal attorneys --
KRISTEN WELKER:
Do you trust the legal system –
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I have confidence –
KRISTEN WELKER:
– to handle these cases over troops?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
– in the lower courts, and I'm holding hope that there's one co-equal branch of government left, and that's the judiciary. But again, not on the basis with the shadow docket in the U.S. Supreme Court. But the courts, the lower courts, the federal courts have held pretty strong. And so I'm hopeful it's the last institution standing. Again, he's assaulting all institutions that stand in his way. And obviously I mentioned the one third of the decisions that he appears to have dismissed. The courts are one of the most powerful and potent. So I'm hopeful, but I'm not naïve. Posse Comitatus, it's not complicated. You cannot use the United States military for domestic law enforcement. He just announced he will be sending out strike teams and he'll be organizing in every state these strike teams. Wake up. What the hell do we need to tell people to get them off their couch, to say, "Well, hold on, I may have liked his bluster, I may not have liked the last guy, but I didn't sign up for this?"
KRISTEN WELKER:
You have been one of the most outspoken Democratic voices against President Trump. And part of your tactics is to imitate some of what we see online from President Trump, that you mimic his all-cap posts, you send out similar memes. Do you run the risk of normalizing that behavior?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Quite the contrary. The whole expression was to not allow it to be normalized. It was becoming normalized. All this – the normalization of deviancy across the spectrum of issues. But his communication – he's dressing up as the Pope, as Superman – hold on – he's putting his face on Mt. Rushmore. He's saying, "Thank you." It's madness. And so I put a mirror up to that madness.
KRISTEN WELKER:
It reminds me of something Michelle Obama said once, "When they go low, we go high." Is there still room for that mindset for Democrats?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I would love to go back to that, but politics has changed. The world has changed --
KRISTEN WELKER:
So no?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
The rules of the game have changed. Now, we have to rewrite the new rules. I'm trying to iterate. I'm in that process of doing that. But Michelle Obama also recently was interviewed about that comment and she amended that comment about going high is also going strategic, meaning finding strategies to address concerns and anxieties. So she's evolved on her own foundational principle, but it's the right one. We're all better off when we're all better off. This can't continue forever, all of us living in this state of fear and anxiety, on edge. And so of course we want to go back to some semblance of normalcy. But you have to deal with the crisis at hand. It's just been 10, 11 months of this presidency. We have three more years. Time to batten down the hatches. And it's time for us to change if we want things to change. And that's why our communications strategy has shifted.
KRISTEN WELKER:
I wanna talk to you about the polarization, that very issue, in this country. Because you have reached across the aisle. In fact, in your first episode of your podcast you invited conservative activist Charlie Kirk to join you for a conversation. He was, of course, assassinated in September. Why did you want to speak to Charlie Kirk?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Because success leaves clues. He was organizing on the campuses. He was successful at getting out the vote. He has a voice, a huge voice, an out-sized voice in the MAGA movement. And I talked to Democratic friends and allies and they weren't familiar with him. And I asked about, well, what exists in the Democratic Party? What are we doing about it? And he was, to his credit, kind enough to fly out and sit down with me. We talked about our wives. We talked about our kids. We talked about the future of this country – vehemently different points of view. I mean, it's like daylight and darkness in terms of the contrast of components. We stayed in touch a little bit. And I just think that's healthy. And I know people, some folks in my party were offended by it. "You platformed him." I had zero downloads of my podcast, so who platformed who? But I did the same with Bannon. I did the same thing with Newt Gingrich, who helped lead my recall campaign. I've done that with Sean Spicer – people on the other side because at the end of the day divorce is not an option.
KRISTEN WELKER:
What role do leaders like yourself have in turning down the temperature?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
We've got to call that out. It sickens you to your core. I mean, talk about weakness. Violence solves for nothing. And so it just needs to be called out, period, full stop, not exploited by anybody. Forget politics, how can anybody condone violent acts? I remember getting a call from my son after Charlie was shot, and he asked me as if I would know, "Did he die?" And full disclosure, I sent a text to him, wishing for his recovery. Little did I know – I'm rather humiliated, I haven't shared that. As a human being, my son is not a fan of his but knew of him. And it impacted him. And he was on a speaker phone. He's a young kid at school, it impacted a lot of folks. And I think about my son at that moment. I think that's something he'll never forget, this generation won't forget. So this is, God bless, I prayed for him. And little did I know he probably already had passed away, and so grace. When President Trump was shot, unconscionable, unacceptable, called it out with clarity and conviction. I didn't like on the other side, with respect, and this is not other-side-ism. But there was not that same kind of humanity that was expressed when Paul Pelosi was attacked. There was a lot of, you know, sort of mockery around that. And there's certainly mockery from the left about Charlie Kirk, which was wrong. So all of that needs to be called out. Again, we're all in this together. And so I think, again, we can go back and forth. That's why I say open hand, not a closed fist. The president of the United States calls, I'm going to answer the call, and respect the office, even if I disagree fundamentally with the individual in that office.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
And when we come back, more from my interview with Governor Newsom – his defense of President Biden and his own political ambitions for 2028.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. In my sit-down with California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom I also asked him about his future in the Democratic Party and a potential run for president in 2028.
[BEGIN TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
Let's talk a little bit about your future, the future of the Democratic Party. You have been very clear that, yes, you are considering a potential run for president in 2028. I think it's fair to say that anyone who decides to run in 2028, including former President Biden's surrogates, are going to have to answer questions about what they did and what they said in 2024 around President Biden's presidency. You stood by him till the end, after that disastrous debate performance, even when top Democrats were calling for him to step down. Did you ever have concerns, Governor, about his capacity --
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I go home with --
KRISTEN WELKER:
– to serve another four years?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I never had that -- I just talked to the president a few hours ago. I've been privileged to have a relationship with the president. I spent almost two hours with him in December, right before, during the transition, in the Oval Office. And my experience, his expression, gave me no pause, no doubt – and let me finish – I was proud to stand there, proud to make the case for 50.4 million jobs. Proud to make the case for the CHIPS and Science Act, the industrial policy that was worker-centered. Proud to make the case for an infrastructure package that actually delivered a real bill and is delivering real jobs all across this country. Proud to stand tall as he was a counter-prevailing point to President Xi and what they're doing on low-carbon, green growth, and how they're going to dominate the future as it relates to green energy. And he was a counter-prevailing point. I was proud of the fact that he supported 400 bipartisan bills. It did more for vets and had started to address the issue of gun violence. I was proud of that legislative package of accomplishments. The one exception, as it relates to the interaction I had with him, that gave me pause, one, was the fundraiser in Southern California. And all of us were a little taken aback. But we also were mindful that he had been in Europe twice in about a week, and for the grace of God go any of us with jet lag and being exhausted. That person came back on that debate night and that certainly gave all of us pause.
KRISTEN WELKER:
If it gave you pause after the debate why didn't you sound the alarm then?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I did, privately, with grace and humility. He was going to make the right decision. And so for me it wasn't my job to go out there. My job was to let him, give him the space. I just have a different approach. Good people can disagree. I have a different approach to all this. And I lost my father. I lost him right around election for governor. He survived just to see me elected. So many of the attributes of my father I remember – he reminds me so much, I'll just be candid with you, this is me speaking as a human being, he reminds me of Joe Biden. I wasn't going to do that to him. He was going to make the right decision and he did. The question of the timing, okay. But the bottom line, I was proud and continue to be proud to make a case for his record, and certainly in contrast to the record of this president.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Governor, did you legitimately believe that he was capable of serving as president until January of 2029?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Yeah, I think my focus was, frankly, situational. It was making sure Donald Trump didn't get back into office, to experience everything that we're experiencing today. And there was no interaction I had that suggested otherwise.
KRISTEN WELKER:
What do you say to Americans who feel misled by you and other top Democrats –
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Misled in what respect? He decided to step down--
KRISTEN WELKER:
– about the mental acuity of President Biden, that they wish you'd sounded the alarm sooner, to give way for an open convention.
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I never experienced – look, I'm not going to substitute myself for someone else or for popular opinion. I'm going to express my relationship to my truth with the former president of the United States, including at the end of his term, quite literally in December, which was a master class of foreign policy and domestic policy, which I will never forget, as we walk through not just the election but we're walking through the world we're living in. There was nothing to suggest what you just said or others have suggested in terms of my interaction. That's all I can be accountable for.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Let's talk about former Vice President Kamala Harris. She says she lost because she only had 107 days to run, among some other factors. In your view, why do you think she lost the 2024 race?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Oh, that's a deeper forensic. I think I'm up to 26 pages of other people's opinions on it – I'm not even making that up. By the way, it's I think actually 24, to be fair. Let me not overstate it. And there's all kinds of theories. I mean, you want to go through the list? We'll need an extra half hour --
KRISTEN WELKER:
What do you think was at the top of the list, Governor?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I don't know. I’m reflecting on it. I think time, we'll have more of an understanding. We can start with inflation. We can talk with interest rates. We don't talk about interest rates enough. We could talk about incumbency. We could talk about Israel. We could talk about immigration and the border. We can go through a myriad of lists. We could talk about Joe Rogan. We could talk about woke. We could talk about the 107 days. We could talk about the lack of an open primary. We could talk about “The View.” Again, I'm on page six of the 24 pages. And how you unpack that, how you stack that in terms of everything, I think needs still a little bit more forensics, a little more analysis.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Do you think if former President Biden had stayed in the race, given that you did stay with him till virtually the end, do you think he could've won?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I think the prevailing wins were – there were a lot of headwinds. And people were looking for something fundamentally different. They were looking for change. I think the inflation scars were real. I think if – I think about my own surrogacy. You know, I talked about the aggregate a lot. I talked about the economy that was booming. It was the best economy since the 1960s, the lowest Black unemployment, the lowest unemployment for women, the lowest unemployment for people with disabilities, the lowest uninsured rate in American history. We had cut child poverty in half. That all happened during the Biden-Harris administration. I was making those points. I was making the point around GDP. I was making the point that inflation was cooling off – but the inflation scars at 9.1 – and moving in the right direction. I was making a point around the American experience in the aggregate, not what the American people were experiencing. And I think that was a legit disconnect in terms of the campaign, our communication, and others, that would have made it a very challenging election.
KRISTEN WELKER:
In her book, the former vice president writes that she scrambled to reach prominent Democrats hours after President Biden exited the race. And she said that you responded to her call, quote, by saying, "Gavin Newsom: ‘Hiking. Will call back.' He never did." Is that what happened?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
100%. And I sent out an endorsement in a few minutes after that. I was one of her first endorsements, the reason she was calling. I've known Kamala all my life. The last person she needs to reach out to is me. So, I learned the news, I wanted to get in touch with the Biden folks. I was out on an actual hike. I was like, "Kamala, you've got a million people to call," and we were literally working as she reached out. It was a voicemail, by the way, unknown number, for the record. And as she was on to her next calls, we were already on to our press release endorsing her. So, I don't even know why that was even in the book.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Did you feel like she took a swipe --
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I don't care --
KRISTEN WELKER:
– at you in her book?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I don't care. It's all good. We've known each other for 20 years, and I think it's familiarity. I think she was having a little fun.
KRISTEN WELKER:
So, no hard feelings that --
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Oh, my God --
KRISTEN WELKER:
– she wrote that --
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
– Just the opposite. Give me a break.
KRISTEN WELKER:
You've said, as we've discussed, you are considering a run for president. And you've said you'll make a decision about whether to run for president after the midterms.
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Yeah, I mean –
KRISTEN WELKER:
Governor, let me ask you, why do you want to be president?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
I don't. I'm not suggesting I am. It was in response to someone talked about it and I -- nothing I dislike more than a politician that sits there and lies to you. And we all just sit there rolling our eyes going, "Give me a break." So, as it relates to that, there's nothing on the -- I'm focused on Prop 50. I'm focusing on fair and free elections. And to the extent, fate, the future, there's an alignment, you have a big enough why, you have a what and a how, you meet a moment and that moment presents itself in a year, year and a half, we'll see what happens.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Understood. But if you're thinking about it, that why must be forming.
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
No.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, if you decide to run, why would you want to do it?
GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM:
Well, I haven't decided, and I appreciate the persistence as it relates to this and I respect it. I think whoever runs, and this is just my objective belief, subjective, but I hope it's objective for a lot of Americans, it reminds me a little of Isaiah. You need to be a repairer of the breach, spiritually and physically. But it's not just about restoration, the forces of restoration. It's also forces of transformation. And what I mean by that is what are the trend lines that define the future? You know, I'm here. We're in the future business. I'm here in California. Future happens here first. We're America's coming attraction. On artificial intelligence, fusion, quantum, robotics, nuclear, space, California dominates in every critical category. I worry about the future of work. I worry about the announcement from Amazon. I worry about earnings going up, profits skyrocketing, and headcount going down, meaning less and less people having access and opportunities. I think whoever runs has to paint a vision for the future, a journey that we can be on together that's not just about growth but about inclusion, issues of debt and entitlement, issues around energy. And I still believe in climate issues. All those issues need to be front and center eventually for whoever's the nominee of our party.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
And you can watch my full interview with Governor Newsom at meetthepress.com. When we come back, there are warning signs for both parties as the pain from the government shutdown grows deeper. The panel is next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. The panel is here. NBC News Capitol Hill Correspondent Melanie Zanona; Jonathan Martin, politics bureau chief and senior political columnist for Politico; Democratic strategist Adrienne Elrod; and Republican strategist Matt Gorman. So great to have you all here before we gear up for a big Election Day, but J-Mart let me start with you.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Yeah.
KRISTEN WELKER:
This interview with Governor Gavin Newsom, we covered a lot of ground. What were your key takeaways from what we heard?
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Somebody who's a lot happier talking about today rather than yesterday or tomorrow. He's thrilled to talk about this – this ballot measure, its chances for success. And let's be honest. It's going to elevate him to the front of the line as the leader of the opposition, and the early, early frontrunner going into 2028. This is also, I think, someone who feels liberated, Kristen. Think about this for a minute. He was a young hot-shot mayor two decades ago in San Francisco. He then has to wait in line for eight long years behind Jerry Brown. He then sees Joe Biden standing in his way. He then faces the possibility of Kamala Harris standing in his way until the 2030s. Think about what's happened now in the last year. Those obstacles have cleared. Biden's out of the way. Harris probably out of the way. And it's potentially an open race in '28.
KRISTEN WELKER:
You know, Adrienne, it's such a fascinating point because he did seem liberated in various moments, including his discussion and decision to stand by former President Biden –
ADRIENNE ELROD:
Yeah.
KRISTEN WELKER:
– until the end. Notably, we heard from former Vice President Kamala Harris this week who said, while she thinks the campaign was tough for President Biden, she actually thinks he could have served another four years. What is the right answer? What are voters, do you think, going to be looking for in 2028?
ADRIENNE ELROD:
Well, I – I think the right answer is speaking from the heart and speaking from experience, which is what you saw Gavin Newsom just do very effectively. He talked about his experience with – with President Biden, that, you know, he sort of reminded him of a father/son relationship. He talked about his record. He proudly talked about all the work that President Biden did when he was president. But then he pivoted and moved on. And that is where I also think the voters are going to be going into '27, '28. They're focused on the future. They're focused on the issues that matter to them. Affordability, of course, is a key issue that is front and center in the Tuesday elections. They're focused on protecting health care, which of course is why you're seeing Leader Jeffries and Leader Schumer really making sure their caucus is standing strong on that issue. They're focused on the future. They're not necessarily focused on, you know, the past and – and whether or not they believe that President Biden was fit to serve. They’re – and you look at the deep bench of surrogates who are traveling right now on the campaign trail.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah, that's for sure.
ADRIENNE ELROD:
You see a lot of people who are the future of the party, like Governor Shapiro. Of course our rockstar surrogate like President Obama too, but I think people are focused on the future and that is going to be front and center going into the – the midterms and into ‘27, ‘28.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, Matt, of course Governor Newsom's big battle, and as J-Mart is saying, inextricably linked to Prop 50 –
MATT GORMAN:
Yeah.
KRISTEN WELKER:
– which would allow Democrats in that state to add extra Democratic seats. It’s a response to Texas Republicans adding additional seats there. Given the confidence you hear from Governor Newsom, given that this seems to be shaping up for a tit-for-tat battle with all of these other states getting in on the mix, are Republicans saying that this was the right fight for President Trump?
MATT GORMAN:
Well, let me just say really quick, when it comes to next in 2028, we've all been through presidential primaries. 90% of the time you agree on policy. So if somebody's up on the debate stage or the campaign trail defending Biden or Harris, another candidate's going to use that as a wedge issue or as a moment to draw a contrast on judgment, authenticity, whatever it is. On – on redistricting, this started in Wisconsin when Democrats brought that suit to redraw some of the Republicans out. Obviously Texas followed about a month or so afterwards. But I think California will supercharge the urgency in a lot of these state capitals. You saw in Illinois when they talked about redrawing the maps. Hakeem Jeffries went there. Suddenly Indiana, who had been dragging their feet, got in line real quick. I'd expect to see coming out of California we'll get maybe Florida, Kansas, even Nebraska, Virginia on the Democratic side. It's going to turbocharge a lot of these states that were dragging their feet.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah, Mel, this is all about Republicans' attempts to hold on to the House. Democrats trying to win it back. The math actually gets quite difficult for Democrats, as Matt is kind of laying out all of these other states. Talk a little bit about how this shapes up in terms of which party ultimately could have the advantage heading into the midterms.
MELANIE ZANONA:
Well, I think it's actually a jump ball right now. We have to see how some of these other states really shake out. Ultimately, I do believe Republicans will walk away probably with a slight edge –
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Yeah. Yeah.
MELANIE ZANONA:
– in terms of redistricting. That being said, they really blew their opportunity in California to beat back this Democratic effort to even the playing field. Newsom did a very effective job of making this a referendum on Trump, a fight about Trump instead of the much more nuanced question of independent redistricting. And meanwhile, a Republican actually pointed this out to me, not only has Newsom raised his national profile and made himself – positioning himself as sort of the face of the effort in the Democratic Party take on Trump; he has also expanded his donor base. He has all these new emails and donor lists that are going to really well serve him if he does run in 2028.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All of this going on against the backdrop of this government shutdown, the second longest in U.S. history. Our NBC news poll showing that more Americans are pointing the finger at Republicans –
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Yeah.
KRISTEN WELKER:
– right now. How does this play heading into Tuesday and beyond?
JONATHAN MARTIN:
I – I think any polling question in American politics today is basically a referendum on President Trump. And I think people generally are sour on the president now and so they tend to blame him for the shutdown. I actually feel a little bit of optimism about a – a reopen for a convergence of reasons. First of all, Tuesday's Election Day. It gives Democrats some good news, could be a circuit-breaker, I think, potentially. Also you have open enrollment right now in health care plans. You also have the – the – the SNAP issue tied up in the courts now. That potentially could be a factor if – if folks cannot get food to eat. I think the convergence of those things plus just the fact that it's about to be the longest shutdown in history I think could be a motivating factor to get people back to the table next week.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, and Mel, you have been at these food banks. You've talked to some of these people waiting in line. I mean, how much of a pressure point, as J-Mart is saying, is that for lawmakers to get to the table and figure this out?
MELANIE ZANONA:
It really does feel like an unsustainable situation. I've been at these food banks talking to federal workers who have never been at a food bank before and can't put food on their table right now. So I think the risk for Democrats is that at some point, the SNAP issue, the health – or, excuse me, the air travel issue starts to overwhelm the health care issue.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Right.
MELANIE ZANONA:
I agreed with J-Mart. I think after the election we'll probably see some movement. Both parties were already getting antsy last week. The question is how do Democrats get out of this looking like they got something. How does the White House look like they didn't give anything away? The contours of that are not clear to me at the moment. I do think we're seeing light at the end of the tunnel.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Always the challenge. The president's saying, "Go nuclear. Get rid of the filibuster so Republicans can reopen the government by themselves."
MATT GORMAN:
You know, and Republicans have said very publicly that it's not going to happen, even privately to me that it's not going to happen. And Trump has said this before. I think, though, this did shift the Overton window a little bit. There's a first-mover advantage. Every Democrat has either voted for or campaigned on gutting this thing as soon as they get back in power. So not doing this, say, in the middle of the Congress for a temporary CR, but I wouldn't be surprised next Congress, Congress after – again, there's a first-mover advantage when Democrats have already said they're going to do it.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Adrienne, Democrats are underwater in their approval rating. Was this the right fight for them to pick? Could it backfire at this critical moment where they may gain some momentum on Tuesday?
ADRIENNE ELROD:
Absolutely – absolutely it was the right fight. I mean, look, Republicans are in control of the House, Senate, and the White House. Democrats have very little leverage right now, so they have to use whatever power they can. And they are using this as a way to ensure that Americans' are – that their health care is protected. Now, I do think that Tuesday's elections are going to go very well for Democrats. I think that's going to give us some – some real staying power and – and some ammunition to be able to go in and say, "All right, like, Republicans, come to the table. You guys –
JONATHAN MARTIN:
She means cover.
ADRIENNE ELROD:
– are under water."
JONATHAN MARTIN:
She means cover.
ADRIENNE ELROD:
Sorry. Cover.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
She means cover.
ADRIENNE ELROD:
Sorry, cover. Cover. But I think it's going to be a way – I think it’s going to force the issue. I think, again, that Democrats and Republicans will come together because ultimately, at the end of the day, Democrats are going to be in a much better situation and we have to protect health care for Americans.
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right, guys. Great conversation but stick around because we've got a lot more. When we come back, President Trump, as we were just discussing, pushes the so-called nuclear option to end the Senate's filibuster to end the government shutdown. But Republicans are rejecting those demands. We'll take a look. Our Meet the Press Minute is next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. The government funding fight reignited a familiar debate in Washington as President Trump this week urged Senate Republicans to “go nuclear”, meaning to scrap the filibuster. That's the rule that requires 60 votes for passing legislation. If it were eliminated, Republicans could reopen the government without Democrats. Senate Republican Leader John Thune pushed back, saying his support for the filibuster remains unchanged. The longest-serving Senate Republican, Leader Mitch McConnell, joined Meet the Press in 2013 with Democrats poised to take the historic step of eliminating the filibuster for most presidential nominees, defending why he believed the rule still mattered.
[BEGIN TAPE]
MITCH MCCONNELL:
The provocation was that five circuit court nominations had been defeated with a filibuster for the first time in American history. The Democrats invented that. We went to the brink and we pulled back because cooler heads prevailed, and we knew it would be a mistake for the long-term future of the Senate and the country. That's what I hope is going to happen here, David. We have an opportunity to pull back from the brink in this joint meeting that we're going to have of all senators in the old Senate Chamber Monday night. I hope we'll come to our senses and not change the core of the Senate. We have never changed the rules of the Senate by breaking the rules of the Senate in order to diminish the voices of individual senators. We've never done that and we sure shouldn't start it now, particularly since every one of the president's nominees that would be subject to this rule change have been confirmed.
[END TAPE]
KRISTEN WELKER:
When we come back, voters head to the polls on Tuesday. What can we expect? More with the panel next.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Welcome back. The panel is still with us. Jonathan Martin, we are watching these key races on Tuesday night in Virginia, in New Jersey, of course the mayoral race in New York. And you have said that President Trump is the Democrats' best campaigner. What do you mean by that?
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Well, nobody motivates core Democratic voters like this president. We saw it in 2017, 2018. I think we're seeing it again now in New Jersey and Virginia. He's going to motivate Dems there. I think he’ll do the same in California on the ballot measure. What I'm watching Tuesday is less the contest between GOP and Dem, and more the factional fight that's coming out of this election Tuesday. Here's the story we're all going to be watching on Tuesday night, Wednesday morning. Who is the big star? Is it the two new Democratic governors in Jersey and Virginia, Mikie Sherrill, Abigail Spanberger?
MELANIE ZANONA:
Roommates in college, by the way. Or in Congress.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
From the House, yes. And, of course, Gavin Newsom with his big win. Or is it going to be the young socialist from New York? I can tell you the Democratic traditionalists, the mainstream – the Elrod types – are going to be pushing those new governors and will be pushing Governor Newsom. Or a lot of the younger, more brash Democrats are going to be saying, "No, the story is Zohran." And the Republicans like Gorman are going to be saying, "The socialist is the story." The question I have: back in the old days when Time and Newsweek kind of dominated our world, what would be on the cover the following week? Would it be just Zohran or could you get Zohran and Gavin Newsom for a split cover? That fight in the next few days is going to be fascinating to watch. Who wins that narrative argument?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Mel, what are you going to be watching for in that election?
MELANIE ZANONA:
I'm going to be watching, yeah, to see whether Republicans can hold on to the gains that they made in 2024 without Trump on the ballot, especially in New Jersey, which saw the second highest swing towards Trump than any other state in the entire country. And he did that by improving his standing with Hispanic populations. Now there is some polling that shows some of the ICE raids are having a backlash. And also, some of these voters were first-time voters. They're people that don't typically turn out, only except in presidential years. But I do think we'll get some really strong clues about whether Hispanic voters are actually realigning towards the Republican Party on Tuesday.
KRISTEN WELKER:
There's going to be a lot of focus to see if that new constituency that President Trump was able to drive up holds. But Adrienne, to that point about Zohran Mamdani, I mean, how is the Democratic Party thinking about Tuesday, given the fact that if he wins, what would the message be about the strength of progressivism within the party?
ADRIENNE ELROD:
Well, I think it shows, Kristen, that we are a big-tent party. That we have the progressive lean in the party, we have these national security soccer moms who are both going to be respected governors in Virginia and New Jersey –
JONATHAN MARTIN:
I told you. There it is.
ADRIENNE ELROD:
There we go. There we go.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
There it is.
ADRIENNE ELROD:
But I think to me the overall issue is —
JONATHAN MARTIN:
There she goes again.
ADRIENNE ELROD:
The overall issue, though, what Spanberger, Sherrill, and Mamdani all have in common is they're all talking about affordability. That is the key issue in their campaign. They are meeting voters where they are and they are talking about the issues that are affecting their everyday lives. And they are presenting solutions. Donald Trump largely won in 2024 on the issue of high costs. He has done nothing to drive down costs. If anything, costs have gone up. So they're going to drive home that message. They're doing it in their own different, unique ways. Obviously, New York City being a ranked choice municipal election is far different than what the electorate is in Virginia and New Jersey, but you are still going to see three people who are talking about the same agenda and meeting voters where they are. And I think that is the biggest takeaway for us. Democrats are protecting their health care. We're going to drive down costs. That is something that Donald Trump promised he would do and he has not.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Matt, what about that, this idea that, as you see in our poll, President Trump getting low marks on his handling of the economy and inflation. To what extent is that a headwind? After all, you are seeing the Republican candidates walk a very fine line, Jack Ciatarelli in New Jersey, as it relates to President Trump. He's not out on the campaign trail.
MATT GORMAN:
Yeah, one of the things I'm looking at I think we're going to see in 2026 but also 2028, specifically on affordability, the issue of housing. I mean I saw this before Trump was elected, you saw governors out west, Republican governors, talk about this issue. I think in 2028 it's going to be one that Republicans are going to have a heavy policy plan on, but also it's going to be an issue in the campaign. The other thing I'm looking at, much like Mel, is New Jersey. If we keep it around six points, suddenly New Jersey becomes a 2028 battleground that both parties are going to have to reckon with, one of the most expensive states to run a campaign in. Democrats have been wishcasting Texas turning blue for 20 years, yet New Jersey sped that up and could be here already.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
Well, I don't know about that. I think Jersey's still been a fool's gold for the Republican Party as long as they have a challenge with suburbanites as they have in the Trump era. Sorry, go ahead.
KRISTEN WELKER:
No, but it is, the tea leaves of Trump gaining strength in 2024. Mel, on Wednesday morning when Democrats and Republicans wake up, what are the lessons they're going to be looking for? Obviously, the Latino vote is going to be one of the big ones, as you say.
MELANIE ZANONA:
Yeah, I think that's going to be one of the big ones. I think for Democrats they're going to be looking at how effective was the campaign of trying to relentlessly focus on affordability. You saw that both in New Jersey and in Virginia, trying to make it less about Trump and more about the issues that actually matter for people. I do think, at the end of the day, it is probably going to be a referendum on Donald Trump, though.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yeah, and this push and pull between the moderates and the more progressives, the conservatives, the more moderates of the Republican Party as well, and the fact that you have former President Obama on the campaign trail. You have big governors, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
But who's not on the campaign trail?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Yet Donald Trump's MIA.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
So who's not on the campaign trail? Well, obviously Trump is never going to show up in California. But Trump is not going to show up in Jersey or Virginia either. They're too blue of states. But what was striking to me was who also never showed up in Jersey and Virginia. Nobody associated with last year's Democratic debacle. No Joe Biden. No Kamala Harris. No Tim Walz. None of them showed up in Jersey or Virginia. At the same time, Bernie and AOC, who were obviously the leaders of the left-wing faction, kept their efforts, at least in-person efforts, in New York City because that's the big coalitional war going on in today's Democratic Party is that race in New York City. They were not in Jersey and Virginia. I think that tells you something too. Who do we see in Jersey and Virginia? It's mostly tomorrow. Who's tomorrow? Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore, potentially Pete Buttigieg, Ruben Gallego. They can play most every state in America.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Matt, do you think we start to see Trump as we get closer to 2026?
MATT GORMAN:
Well, I think you might see him, but I'll tell you who you also see. You're going to see a lot more Mamdani in Pennsylvania and a lot of these swing states. But in television ads of Republicans. Not in-person. And you're going to be seeing a lot of Zohran Mamdani, AOC.
JONATHAN MARTIN:
On a certain cable channel as well.
MATT GORMAN:
Yeah, I think all over the place.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Adrienne, 20 seconds, last thought on Zohran Mamdani and the fact that President Trump is getting ready to face off against him in a range of ways.
ADRIENNE ELROD:
Well, look, he's excited a lot of young voters. He is talking about the issues that people are feeling. He's going to the table and saying, "Look, you know, I might not be able to solve every affordability issue for you, but at least I'm going to give it a shot. I'm going to try."
KRISTEN WELKER:
All right.
ADRIENNE ELROD:
And I think that's what we're taking away for Democrats.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Great conversation, guys. Thank you so much to our panel. And a quick programming note: NBC News Now will have live streaming coverage of election night results for the big races across the country, starting at 7 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday. You can catch me alongside my colleagues Tom Llamas, Hallie Jackson and, of course, Steve Kornacki. That's all for today, thanks for watching. We'll be back next week, because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.