A few weeks back, I received a letter from Continental OnePass indicating that, based on my 2005 travel with the airline, I was eligible for Silver Elite status with OnePass for 2006 -- for an upfront fee of $350.
I thought about it for a couple minutes, reckoning this simple payoff: cut a check and I can cut lines. Check-in lines, security lines, gate seating process lines (and the ensuing fights over overhead bin space). Ultimately I passed: you'd have to cut an awful lot of lines to cover $350 of your time.
Because that's what it comes down to -- with automatic upgrades at all-time lows; with access to airport lounges available only to OnePass Platinum members (or first and business-class fliers on international flights); with most of the other benefits of only peripheral interest to the average traveler -- all my $350 would buy was the right to stand in the short line at check-in, to pass through the expedited line at security, and to get a head start on the overhead space. I wasn't sure I could make up $350 worth of time saved by cutting a few lines. If you are a minimum wage worker, you would need to save about 50-60 hours/year.
Meanwhile, American Airlines is celebrating the 25th anniversary of the AAdvantage program, the nation's first and largest frequent flier program. American is planning all sorts of "fun" promotions and giveaways, many of which result in one thing for the recipients: more miles!
Granted, they're going all out -- giving away 42 million miles, including 25,000 mile vouchers to 1,700 people on 10 flights nationwide. (American picked 10 flights in May, and gave 25,000 miles to every passenger on the chosen flights.)
Also, several of the deals reduce the number of miles required for award travel; the first of American's 25 Deals in 25 Days promotions is 25 percent off the mileage required to redeem select MileSAAver awards. The normal restrictions apply -- "seats for award travel are subject to capacity controls and may not be available on all flights" and the like -- so while you may need fewer miles, there may not be any seats for the taking. (That said, if my inbox is any measure, American does as good or better job of doling out awards than most airlines; the last time I wrote about these programs, several readers wrote to say as much.)
A drop in the unredeemed-mileage bucket
To promote the event, American offers "Fun Facts" (I was surprised they didn't print this "Fun FAActs") to show that the program is very popular -- so popular that there are potentially 50 million people jockeying to use 18,500 miles instead of 25,000 on the domestic flight you want to take. Good luck beating those odds.
I'm exaggerating of course, but the numbers are clearly against you. Estimates indicate that there are 14 trillion unredeemed miles sitting in frequent flier accounts worldwide. At the commonly accepted "penny per mile" value of a frequent flier mile, which is the low-end of the range at which airlines sell miles to credit card issuers, The Economist magazine estimates that, as of January 2005, "the total stock of unredeemed miles was worth more than all the dollar bills in circulation."
Back in 1981, American's original plan for their frequent flier plan was to engender "loyalty" from their customers, who subsequently felt like they were getting something back from the airlines for all the money and miles they put in. Of course, the airlines were actually handing over seats that would have gone empty -- so they too got something back out of this "unsold inventory" in the form of loyalty, which translated directly into future sales. As the programs matured, estimates from the 1990s indicated that the average business traveler was willing to pay up to $170 more per 1000-mile trip to be able to fly on their "preferred" airline in order to rack up more account miles.
Today, there are much easier ways to rack up miles. It is much faster to rack up miles on your credit card than by actually getting on a plane. The world's most prolific mileage accumulator has racked up around 25 million miles by putting all his company's postage on his credit card. It would take 2083 days (5.7 years) in the air traveling at 500 mph to rack up 25 million miles in flight, but doing the same on a corporate credit card is a different thing altogether. Big mileage tallies are almost routine for millions of people who simply use a credit card daily. As a result, most travelers, including business travelers, make purchase decisions on a combination of fare and flight times, rather than how many miles they can rack up.
It gets easier to sign up for mileage cards all the time, and even actual flight miles are easier to collect. Surely one of the reasons these programs have become so large with respect to membership as well as outstanding miles is the greatly improved ease of enrollment and award claims (if not award redemption). Where previously you had to send snail mail all over the place, find slips of paper with your account number when you called to book a flight, etc. etc., today most booking engines can save your account information and automatically apply miles. And when you book travel using the airline's Web site, if you don't have an account, you can sign up for one right there at the time of purchase.
With so many miles out there, the competition actually to redeem an award is fierce; folks who book flights way in advance (or who use double miles, as I noted in Airline Miles - Useless? Part Two) seem to be able to make it happen, and folks who buy upgrades or magazines instead do OK (according to AA, after a domestic flight, the No. 2 use of award miles is a magazine subscription), but the average traveler finds it all but impossible to redeem miles. As a result, the same folks continue to rack up miles, but are far less likely to go out of their way (or pay more) to book on their program airline, or especially to talk about things like "loyalty." In fact, the near-impossibility of redeeming award travel inside, say, a 10-day advance purchase, which is about when most travel purchases are made these days, has become a fairly serious public relations problem for the airlines.
Are there actually fewer free seats in play, or does it just seem that way because so many people with so many miles are scrambling for the same seats? According to The Economist, award travel accounted for about 9 percent of revenue passenger miles in 1999. In 2004, that number was down to 7.5 percent. The numbers tell the story. Add to that the sheer number of miles and account holders out there, and it is no wonder that it's tough to redeem your miles.
So if travelers don't care much about loyalty in flight, and the public relations problems caused by the sheer competitiveness of redeeming an award is dragging on airlines already tarnished reputation, why keep them going?
I'll repeat a stat from above: the price credit card companies pay per mile to airlines ranges from 1-to-2 cents per mile. So every time you charge something to your credit card, the airline gets a percentage -- and they get it up front.
How to use the miles
I have found that the single most effective way to actually cash in miles, whether for award travel or more likely for upgrades, is to use a travel agent. Of course, since commissions have been reduced to pennies on the dollar, most travel agents now charge a fee for complex bookings of any kind. Still, if you are traveling long distances, on complex itineraries, or are simply shut out of using miles when you call the awards desk, they may be able to cobble together a trip that actually works. And the travel agent doesn't get paid unless you purchase a ticket, so they are very motivated to find seats out of alternate airports, at slightly different times than you first request, and even on partner airlines.
I used this tactic on a trip to Japan last year. I was facing 16 hours in the air each way, had heaps of idle frequent flier miles, yet no one at the airline could seem to make the twain meet -- and although it required one 4.5 hour layover, the agent booked me into mileage-upgraded seats for the entire trip. I learned that it was truly worth the effort (and $85 I paid the travel agent): each flight was almost a pleasant experience.
Find more tips for getting awards here (scroll down to "Tips for Getting Awards," natch).
As David Leonhart notes in the NY Times article linked above, the inspiration for American's groundbreaking frequent flier program was S&H Green Stamps. And if you are even old enough to know what green stamps are -- then you see the fate that frequent flier programs could be facing.
But there's way too much in it for everyone involved for the programs simply to go away. The airlines are making too much money (when United went into bankruptcy, the company said that the only piece of its business that was making money was the Mileage Plus program). And travelers are still willing to rack up miles just in case they can get themselves a rare free seat or occasional upgrade -- why not?
(As for expedited lines at security, as I wrote back in early 2002, it makes no sense to me whatsoever that someone with nothing more than an upgraded ticket should get preferential treatment when it comes to national security. At the time, several readers wrote in to say that, as frequent fliers, they were proven zero-threat travelers, which is simply not true. It simply proves that they are frequent travelers. I will admit to having enjoyed the shorter and faster lines myself when traveling on upgraded tickets or as an elite-level program member, but that doesn't mean it felt right.)
So 25 years in, I take the programs for what they are -- marketing tactics only occasionally more useful than S&H green stamps. I enjoy the benefits when I can, and rarely worry about them otherwise. Except to say Happy Anniversary, Frequent Flier programs, been great to know you!
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