Democrats in Arizona and across the nation believe they have a secret weapon in November mid-term elections: putting minimum wage increases on state ballots to boost turnout among supporters.
In doing so, Democrats are taking a page from their opponents' play book. Republicans have used ballot propositions for years as a way to galvanize their political base, most notably in 2004 with referendums to ban same sex marriage.
"The idea is to get more of our voters to the polls. The other side has done this so well for so long — on terms limits, property tax reductions and gay marriage," said Oliver Griswold of the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, a Washington group helping Democrats use state referendums as a strategic weapon in elections.
Democrats are collecting signatures to put the minimum wage issue on the ballot in six states - Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Arizona and Colorado. The federal minimum wage has been stuck at $5.15 an hour since 1997 and the Republican-controlled Congress has beaten back many attempts to raise it.
In Arizona, the effort to raise it to $6.75 an hour is being backed by a coalition that includes organized labor, the Democratic Party and even some religious groups who are framing the issue in moral terms. Organizers have to collect 122,000 signatures by mid-July to ensure the issue will appear on the ballot and are confident they will succeed.
"In every poll we've seen, this issue is hugely popular among Democrats but also across party lines and in all ethnic groups. It will be a huge motivator to get Democrats to the polls in November and we intend to use it as a defining issue," said Rebekah Friend, president of the state AFL-CIO labor federation who leads the initiative in Arizona.
Several tough races
Arizona has two U.S. House of Representatives races where Republicans could face a strong challenge. Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, who is up for re-election, has already endorsed raising the minimum wage.
The biggest Democratic target could be Republican Sen. Jon Kyl, who is facing Jim Pederson, a wealthy property developer. Until recently, Kyl had been seen by most independent experts as fairly safe for re-election, but a recent poll put his advantage at only 7 percentage points, and some analysts now think he could be vulnerable. Democrats need to capture six Senate seats and 15 House seats to regain control of Congress.
"The minimum wage is going to be a big issue for us because it's part of what we want voters to know about our opponent -- that he's voted in Congress time and again against raising it," said Pederson spokesman Kevin Griffis. "It's going to be a galvanizing force in the election. It plays into the contrast between the two candidates."
A spokesman for Kyl said the senator had not yet taken a position on the issue because it was not yet officially on the ballot.
Arizona's Chamber of Commerce and organizations representing small businesses oppose the ballot, saying it will deter employers from hiring new workers, but concede it will be tough to defeat.
"If it's going to be defeated, it will be very expensive. It will take a lot of voter education," said Farrell Quinn of the state Chamber of Commerce. "The question is, how much money can be put into it and how much of an effort can be mounted?"
Republicans are countering the Democratic push on the minimum wage in several states, including Arizona, by once again trying to put anti-same sex marriage propositions on the ballot. But there is some evidence that issue is losing some of its fervor.
State referendums do raise voter participation, especially in mid-term elections when turnout is usually far lower than in presidential elections, said University of Florida political scientist Daniel Smith, who has studied the issue.
Smith said his research of mid-term elections from 1982 to 2002 showed that each ballot initiative increased turnout by an average of 2 percentage points.
"Initiatives also have an agenda-setting effect and get voters thinking about the candidates through the prism of this one issue. It can work both to mobilize people and to prime people, to drive voters and to drive wedges," Smith said.